We are a unique group of retail investors who bonded over a little-known business spun out of the University of Washington’s Human Interface Technology Lab.
Some of us are tech geeks, others are investors with varying degrees of experience in the market, and some are newbies dipping their toes in the water for the first time. For the most part, we share an unwavering, almost fanatical belief in the technologies that MicroVision, Inc. (MVIS), which was originally established to commercialize patents for virtual retina display (VRD), has been developing for more than 20 years.
We denizens of the MVIS subreddit engage in daily play-by-play and technical analysis of the day’s trading action, freely sharing our knowledge of the market and MVIS technology, which is comprised of several tech verticals. The civility and comradery with which the members of our online community treat each other creates a down to earth vibe as we greet each other in the morning, wish our fellow investors happy birthdays, offer congratulations on the birth of a child or an engagement, and post daily encouragement, “GLTAL!” (good luck to all longtime longs).
One of the subreddit moderators shares a daily market analysis including pivot points, volume and availability. The same moderator encourages those who are trading to “look for opportunities to jump on dips and sell at your specific target goals,” and to “always trade or invest intelligently and responsibly.”
On days when MVIS is on an afternoon uptick, members of our community urge the stock on with calls for a “fourteen dolla holla” or “sixteen dolla holla.” When the MVIS price per share (PPS) is up, we cheer each other on with posts like “boomski to the moonski.” And we commiserate and encourage each other when the stock is down. Still, most of us seem to maintain a sense of humor. As one investor wryly commented, “who’s up for some volatility today?” Another posted, “the market goes up, we go down. The market goes down and we still go down.”
Why, then, do MVIS zealots continue to believe? For one thing, there was the revelation provided last year by one of the more tech savvy members of the community who, on a strong hunch, purchased Microsoft’s Hololens 2 mixed reality smart glasses and did a teardown, providing proof positive that MVIS’s VRD technology is integrated in Hololens 2. Yet Microsoft continues to enforce a non-disclosure agreement preventing MVIS from publicizing this material information and helping keep its PPS down.
The longs, who have been invested in the company for years because of their fervent belief in its VRD technology, have yet another reason to believe. They are now just as enthusiastic and committed to its more recent sensor technology, or Lidar (light detection and range), for self-driving cars, robots and drones, which may prove to be a market disruptor. Naïve as it may sound to the hardened Wall Street mentality, many of us on the subreddit view our shares of MVIS not just as an investment, but as a way of making the world a better place through technology.
Jim Cramer, host of Mad Money on CNBC, is a case in point. In the face of recent single-day gains of 20%, he said on his program that there are “better fish to fry” and “MVIS is too risky with its high volume of short positions.” When Cramer was a hedge fund manager, he once explained how he would go about manipulating the markets through the media. They would reach out to news sources feeding misleading information then watch the price drop as a result so they could cover their short positions. So much for a level playing field, market manipulation and the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) seeming inability to do anything about it.
Market manipulation and references by FUDsters to MVIS as a “corporate corn husk” and a “battleground stock” notwithstanding, the MVIS faithful have yet another reason to believe. Another of the company’s technology verticals, Integrated Visual Augmentation System (IVAS), is an augmented reality goggle based on Microsoft’s HoloLens, which is poised to redefine close combat force capabilities, and has undergone cold weather testing at the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command’s Cold Regions Test Center at Fort Greely, Alaska. Recently it was announced that Microsoft has been awarded a $22 billion contract with the Army for the night vision device.
As the prospect of a buyout of MVIS or strategic alliance with a major player such as Google, Microsoft, Apple or Ford, or a consortium thereof grows, speculation about the resulting share price is as high as $100 and above. Is it pie in the sky wishful thinking by hopelessly optimistic believers in MVIS? Perhaps. Then again, maybe MVIS has been 20 years ahead of its time, and industry is finally catching up.
Perhaps, as another MVIS subreddit member opined, it’s not unlike when the Internet was born. “No one was really ready for that tech. They didn’t have the software, hardware, know-how, etc. Eventually companies, people, and industries caught on. MVIS is a pioneer with 20 plus years of R&D and way ahead of the competition. Microsoft couldn’t do Hololens on their own, they needed MVIS hardware.”
“I look forward to the next run when everyone is celebrating and bragging about their percent gain, number of shares or average cost per share. I look forward to more dreams being realized: early retirement, paid off mortgages, financial freedom, children’s futures so bright, and legacies being created.”
Small Epiphanies From a Life in Progress 